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But there's hope: At the end of the '70s, musicians got back to melodies and lyrics. Most industry experts believe that advertising agencies and Net companies will get back to building brands and managing customer relationships as businesses have done ever since the early 1900s when Procter & Gamble showed the world how it should be done. The rules of the game have changed, of course: People will no longer sit for hours on end in front of a "dumb" box or read messy inky newspapers at the breakfast table. And they may not like to be force-fed product messages every 10 minutes, especially now that they have a choice. Marketing does have to adapt to consumer behavior and new technology, but the discipline must not abandon the basics. "When we stop talking about the future of Internet marketing and just talk about marketing, then we'll make a huge step forward," says consultant Michael Markowitz. In many ways, Net-age marketing already has fallen victim to its own hype (see "One to (N)one? " p141). At the same time, dot-com advertising spending--for both online and offline media--reached $5.1 billion in 1999 and is still growing fast. So what does the future hold? What lessons can Internet marketers take to heart--and the bank--over the next few years? We asked a handful of modern-marketing sages to weigh in and present five touchstone themes that emerged. Back to basics One of the most obvious lessons learned during the past few years of bloated ad budgets is that grabbing a consumer's attention for 30 seconds doesn't equal building a brand. That means it's time for Web companies to step back and invest in a little Marketing 101. "What we're most likely to see now is a whole different set of qualifications for marketing and ad campaigns. It'll be much more traditional," says Ira Matathia, CEO of The Intelligence Factory in New York. "We've learned there really isn't a different set of rules for online and offline branding." Super-sized TV budgets produced to launch a Net company will fade somewhat in favor of more targeted methods of advertising such as direct mail and classic techniques such as public relations and promotion. But changes also loom in this Back to the Future scenario. "It's a different kind of Marketing 101, qualitatively and quantitatively, on the Web," Schrage says. "Most Internet companies don't even know how to take advantage of their assets." Schrage suggests that Web companies focus on how they listen to their customers. The Web's promise of infinite interactivity leads many companies to obsess over a customer's every mouse-click, changing their marketing strategy based on the latest click-through data. Wrong, says Schrage. "You have to manage the tension between you and your customer," he says. "The debate I want these companies to have is, 'Is this an area where we should lead our customer or follow our customer?'" Meaning: Many companies haven't yet learned how to lead. Another developing twist is in the area of targeting. Traditional advertising revolves around demographics. Beer ads target 18- to-24-year-old men; upscale cosmetics ads are aimed at 32- to 54-year-old women. New targeting models will be much more contextual: A 22-year-old man who just bought a new mountain bike will be targeted much the same as a 44-year-old woman who bought the same bike. The thinking? Both need water bottles, spare tire tubes, and steel locks. Partnering for success Co-branding, alliance marketing, partnership models--whatever name you choose, it's about hooking up. Brands will be most successful when they band together to cross-promote and cross-sell products, trade ideas and customer databases, or simply enhance one another's reputation. "The affiliate marketing model has worked well on the Web," says Paul Farris, professor of business administration at the University of Virginia's Darden School. "Consolidation and co-branding is one place where companies are figuring out how two plus two equals five." Partnering in the future also will mean crossing the current boundaries between online and offline. Kozmo.com customers can return movies at Starbucks. Gap accepts maternity clothing returns at its stores even though that line of clothing is only available online. And online sports apparel retailer lucy.com prints a catalog distributed to women who read sports magazines. Expect others to follow. Experience counts The way customers are currently bombarded with ad messages (many people wonder if there are any remaining places to put them), techniques will have to change to successfully attract attention. "The future isn't just about serving more targeted ads; it's more about creating an experience and a relationship with your customer," says Tom Kiernan, vice president and global director of marketing solutions for New York--based interactive agency Organic. "We'll be an information, content, and entertainment resource." He's not alone in his belief that companies will have to build an experience around their brands. It just isn't enough to be new or new-and-improved, you've got to offer contextual content along with the product. Advertising will be less informational and more experiential, predicts Nader Tavassoli, associate professor of marketing at MIT's Sloan School of Management. With consumer consent, companies using personal "bots" will be able to discover and deliver what people desire. For example, both online and offline stores will be more like NikeTowns--less focused on distribution and more focused on creating great experiences. After that, integrated marketing campaigns will emerge that seamlessly move consumers from medium to medium with a consistent and entertaining message. "Companies talk about their brand all day long, but in the end they'll have no choice but to thread the sell message into some sort of entertainment," says John Partilla, managing director of BrandBuzz, a division of Young & Rubicam. Change your channels As television loses its status as the dominant, mainstream advertising channel, what Net-inspired combination of new channels are taking its place? It will likely be some sort of converged home network that allows greater interactivity and control by the user, as well as greater reach and personalization by advertisers. We may get programming and messages on computers, televisions, kitchen monitors, clock radios--even microwave ovens and the toaster. But the where doesn't matter nearly as much as the what. "Our kids will grow up not thinking about 'TV'--it'll be just one programming portal," Partilla says. "No matter how the message gets there, what we're trying to do is create powerful ideas that connect with consumers. It will have to be a focused, relevant, and differentiated message." Of course, just as radio did not supplant newspapers and television did not erase radio, no one's smashing their television sets. Mass media, and therefore mass marketing, will still have cultural importance. Why would anyone pay premium prices to wear "cool" brands such as FUBU or Tommy Hilfiger if no one else knew they were cool? It also remains a great means for salespeople to knock on many doors at once. "The Internet will be the prime vehicle for getting information the way I want it," says Elizabeth Goodgold, CEO of The Nuancing Group in San Diego. "But television will remain the broadcast medium that delivers those common numbers. You'll still need to get what everyone else is getting. Sometimes it's good to see the exact same thing as the other 19 million Oprah watchers." Pay to play Some marketers, such as Permission Marketing author and Yahoo! executive Seth Godin, believe they have to pay consumers to accept the messages. One ad executive even predicts we'll eventually be receiving dividend checks every month from our favorite brands. Others place more stock in the value of simply offering perks and free services--such as free Web access or product samples--in exchange for loyal ad watching. Part of the problem is that the high-income people most desirable to advertisers are probably the ones least likely to opt into programs where they would receive a few dollars a month to accept ads. Still, it's an intriguing idea, and the fact that it has been raised reveals how much the power dynamics have changed between consumers and corporations in the Internet era. Instead of being force-fed wart removal, antacid, and feminine hygiene ads every time you turn on the television, you could receive money for watching entertaining information about products you preselect--say beer, cars, and fast food. Now that's progress.
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